Guest Series with Oli Spink, System Planning Manager, NGED

00:00:00 Hugh Taylor
Hello and welcome to the Connectology podcast. Here, Roadnight Taylor’s influential team of elite connection specialists and their expert guests help you to better understand distribution and transmission network connections and how to acquire them faster for less cost and at lower risk.

00:00:26 Pete Aston
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Connectology podcast with Roadnight Taylor. I’m Pete Aston, one of the connection engineers here at Roadnight Taylor, and I’m very excited to be joined by Oli Spink from National Grid Electricity Distribution. So Oli, welcome to the podcast.

00:00:41 Oli Spink
Thanks very much for having me, good afternoon.

00:00:42 Pete Aston
So Oli, before we begin, we are going to be talking on this podcast about network development plans, what they are, how they’re produced and all that sort of business. But before we get into that, could you sort of give us a bit of an introduction to you, where you fit within the business, what you do, just so that we can get some idea of the role that you fill within NGED.

00:01:02 Oli Spink
Yeah, absolutely. I am the Head of System Planning at National Grid Electricity Distribution, sitting in the Distribution System Operator bit of the business. I joined the company back in 2015 – formerly Western Power Distribution, and have been in a few different roles, mainly focused on network strategy and the Distribution System Operator side of the business.

If I was to try and explain what our team does in a couple of sentences, it would be trying to answer the question – how do we ready the distribution network for a decarbonised future? It’s looking at the future requirements of customers, how they’re going to use our distribution network, and then how do we plan for that, where might we see some problems and how could we go about fixing them?

00:01:43 Pete Aston
Okay, that’s good. I’m glad you gave that summary because I wasn’t quite sure exactly how you’d describe it. Would that be a good summary for the DSO team as a whole, or is that just your bit of the DSO team?

00:01:56 Oli Spink
No, it’s a good summary of the DSO as a whole really. I suppose the DSO (Distribution System Operators) were kind of introduced throughout the last eight or so years, and it’s really trying to summarise it as two things. There’s the angle of planning for the future and trying to re-establish a bit more of a strategic and proactive planning function within DNOs that has maybe not been as required in the last twenty, twenty five years or so, that’s the kind of the angle and the side of the team that I’m very much focused on, but then there’s also the flexibility side of things, which is, we have more tools in our toolbox as a distribution network operator to solving problems than just building more assets and reinforcing our network.

We use the inherent flexibility of our customers by trying to more actively shape the load and use that as an alternative to going straight to build solutions. So, I suppose it’s a mixture of those two roles, the more forward-looking strategic planning and also looking at how we optimize the use of the network that we have currently.

00:02:58 Pete Aston
Yeah, and I can remember it doesn’t seem like that long ago (but it probably is longer than I can remember) where the DSO team was just a handful of people within the business, but it’s really grown quite significantly over the last five to eight years. So roughly how big is the DSO team in NGED now in terms of number of people, approximately?

00:03:18 Oli Spink
I think it’s about sixty to seventy people now.

00:03:20 Pete Aston
Okay, so it’s a pretty big team looking at all this, and data is a massive part of the DSO team, isn’t it? Managing data and trying to manipulate it.

00:03:30 Oli Spink
It is, yeah. It’s a very key element as we’re trying to plan for the future and use our network more flexibly than we have in the past.
That involves using more information about how our network is currently operating at any point in time and how it’s going to look in the future.

Fundamentally, just very large data sets that need managing. A big key point of the DSO team that we’ve developed within NGED is trying to automate a lot of our processes and make things quicker so that we can undertake more analysis. It’s not just about collecting data, but it’s also how do we design tools and techniques and processes such that we can allow computers to do a lot of the heavy lifting for us.

00:04:12 Pete Aston
Yeah, and that automation side of things is obviously massively increasing the capability of teams to produce all sorts of fantastic information.

Let’s dive a little bit deeper then into these Network Development Plans. Can you give us a quick overview as to what a NDP is to start with? Because I guess there’s quite a few listeners who probably haven’t really twigged that it even exists, so if you could give us a quick overview.

00:04:37 Oli Spink
Yeah, absolutely. So, this is the license condition. It’s one of the mandatory activities that we have to do as a DNO or DSO. It came in 2020, and at back end of 2021 through an EU directive, I think it was called the Clean Energy Package for all Europeans. In short, it’s a publication that the DNOs have to produce, which outlines how we’re planning to develop our network in a zero-to-ten-year period. It focuses on where we are expecting to see constraints or problems and how we are looking to solve those, potentially through build solutions or where we might be looking to utilize flexibility services to develop our network for the future.

00:05:27 Pete Aston
Okay, that’s really helpful. So, in reality, as an official product, it’s been around three or four years, but I do remember when I was in Western Power that there was some reporting some years ago, was it called Shaping Sub Transmission Reports, where Western Power was doing something similar before it was actually a formal license condition?

00:05:48 Oli Spink
Yes, you’re absolutely right. From the year 2016 out to 2022 where it formally became the Network Development Plan, we as Western Power published shape and sub transmission reports, I think we ended up doing six months per license area or so. It was a report, very similar sort of thing, but it focused on our 132 kV and 66 kV subtransmission network.

These are all built off load forecasts of how we see the future of utilization of our network looking. So as WPD at the time, we kind of set up this function to create load projections of how we see our network and what the impact of that could be, which was shaping subtransmission. What we interpret in the Network Development Plan is a natural extension of that activity that we’d set up eight years or so ago, but it also covers our 33 kV network. So, it’s a bit wider in scope than the shape and subtransmission.

00:06:47 Pete Aston
Okay. That’s really exciting that this is happening, because I think this sort of strategic view of the network is just really important to properly designing and planning the network. We are seeing this at transmission level with the centralized plans for the whole of the network, the holistic network design documents and other things like that, so it’s very much in view at the moment to get that strategic view, so this is really good.

Oli, how are you hoping that this NDP is going to impact on the boundary between the distribution network and the transmission network?

00:07:19 Oli Spink
That is something that’s probably become apparent as we’re going through this process, of how much use we can see from the NDP impacting at the TD boundary.
Where we see a need maybe ten years out into the future for a new transmission capacity that’s a sole constraint on our 132kV networks, but also where we see problems at the grid supply point.

It’s really useful to kind of open those discussions with the NISO and also our transmission colleagues to make sure that any solution that may be in delivery now because of the connection’s pipelines and new GSPs being triggered in many places, we want to make sure that if there is a new grid supply point built, it’s also for the benefit of our customers from a demand perspective.

It would be a really uncoordinated development of the network if we’re building GSPs in certain locations, and then needing to build new ones and lots of 132 kV circuits to knit them together.

Instead, we can pick an optimal location that hits lots of different drivers, so we’re finding it quite useful in those discussions, pointing out where we would see a need for potentially new transmission in feed to support demand growth.

It’s worth noting that these sorts of solutions take quite a long time, maybe ten-to- twelve years to build, so that really the things that you need quite a lot of foresight for.

00:08:42 Pete Aston
Yeah, so that’s really interesting that the NDP not only has that sort of distribution impact, but it also has a wider impact when working with the transmission companies as well. I think that’s great because everyone knows the challenges at the transmission level and making sure grid supply points go in the right places is crucial, so that sounds like a very good use of this.

And then separate to that, it sort of strikes me that a lot of reinforcement at the moment is driven by new connections – sort of fairly large new connections coming along. Are you expecting that to happen for the long term in the future, or are you expecting other changes to come along and that maybe reinforcement will be driven from other areas?

00:09:26 Oli Spink
I think it’s fair to say at the moment, and especially over the last twenty or so years, the main driver for a lot of the reinforcements on our network has been new customer connections. You can relate that to flat, if not decreasing, utilization of our network in terms of energy consumption, peak demand over the last ten years or so.

But I think what we’re predicting in the future is where the two dominant drivers of a lot of our demand growth are heat pumps and electric vehicle charging points, a lot of that will be happening at existing customer properties and that will be a kind of a connect and notify style notification to us.
So a lot of what we see is future demand growth, and this will probably be out into the 2030s, not necessarily triggered by new connections but actually from the existing customers that we have decarbonising, things like that. Domestic heat, they move around. So, I think we’ve seen as a business that we can’t just rely on connections, kind of change-based approaches to planning the network, to pick up all of the problems. We need to make sure that we’re continually reviewing our network.

00:10:30 Pete Aston
Oli, can you just give us some info around how the network development plan fits within the wider suite of data related documents that are produced by NGED or by DNOs more generally? Because I know that you’ve got the long-term development statement, there’s the distribution future energy scenarios and so on. Can you sort of just give us a sense of how the network development plan fits in with all that?

00:10:52 Oli Spink
Yes, we have the long-term development statement, which is another licensed condition publication that we do, it includes a lot of information about our primary system. So from the 11 kV or 6.6 kV bars of a primary substation up to the grid supply point where we take an in feed from our transmission networks.
It includes a lot of information about that network model, all of the impedance information topology such that interested stakeholders could use that to create a network model or a digital twin of our primary EHV networks.

That also includes some information on zero-to-five-year load forecasts and where we’re planning on upgrading the network. So that’s projects that are already kind of in progress.

One of the inputs to the network development plan, it’s the model of our network that we use and study. Alongside that is the distribution future energy scenarios, so they are a bit longer term. They go out to practically 2050, it’s a bit more all-encompassing of how we see customers utilizing the distribution network, so it encompasses the growth of demands due to the electrification of personal transportation and domestic heat. So EVs and heat prompts and there on the network on mass. It includes the uptake of generation, be that small scale or very large-scale connections that we have in our pipeline.

And that’s if you combine the network model that’s published in the long-term development statement, the load forecasts from distribution future energy scenarios, they are the two key inputs for the network development plan.

When you overlay a year in the future and the model of the network, and then take power system studies and analysis to work out what’s going to break and when. The output of that activity is the network development plan, which is having studied to this point in time in the future, this is what we think is going to break, and we see what we might have to do to fix it.

00:12:42 Pete Aston
So, the network development plan, it’s not just sort of like raw data as it were, it’s you as NGED having manipulated that data, done some assessments and analysis. You know, load flow analysis on the network and come up with a plan as to how to solve any problems that you’ve identified through that work.

00:13:03 Oli Spink
Absolutely. Yeah. It’s very much the output of the process rather than just the data.

00:13:08 Pete Aston
Okay. So what are some of the key parts of the network development plan? I know there’s various documents that get published. Can you sort of just talk us through what those documents look like, roughly the contents of them?

00:13:21 Oli Spink
Yep, all DNOs across GB work together to create a formal statement of what a network development plan needs to contain. So there’s broadly three main elements. The first one is a kind of introduction and methodology report, that explains the approach that we take for the analysis and how we go about identifying if a problem is indeed a problem.

It also includes how we have incorporated the views of stakeholders in our final publication of our network development plans. So for example, we held a webinar in April of this year that presented our plans and the format and structure and got people to comment how they would like that to look.

The second part is what’s called the network headroom report. And that’s a tabular, a dataset that says for every primary substation and both supply points. What the headroom to accommodate the new demand and generation connections is expected to be from now out to 2050. That’s using all scenarios that are covered in the distribution feature energy scenarios, but also a fifth one that most DNOs create, which is called their best view, which is generally the one that’s used for making investment decisions.

00:14:30 Hugh Taylor
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00:14:57 Pete Aston
So in that headroom report, you essentially get four different headroom for each substation out to 2050. Is that right?

00:15:04 Oli Spink
That’s right, yeah. And you can see generally it drops over time, you can see up to a point where it drops to zero. That’s where more or less you’d be expecting to make an intervention of some description.

00:15:15 Pete Aston
Yeah.

00:15:16 Oli Spink
And then finally, the last piece, which for NGED is very much the meatiest element of the NDP is the network development reports (or on our website I think they’re called technical annexes). And these are for each grid supply point area or bulk supply point area, quite a detailed report that says, here is the ecology of the network, here’s our approach to modelling this particular network, here are the constraints that we found and the solutions that we’re considering to solve the constraints. I think there’s about 140 of those, that cover all of our EHV networks across all four license areas.

00:15:50 Pete Aston
I’ve actually got one of those open on my screen, just sort of scrolling through it. There’s an awful lot of information contained within this. It’s a fantastic resource. Can you just go through the process of how you prepare this? You obviously got your network model that gets published in the LTDS and then you’ve got all these future energy scenarios. Can you just sort of talk us through roughly speaking, how you end up sort of plugging all that information together? What sort of processes you go through to actually come out and say, yeah, this bit’s overloaded, and we need to change it in 2032 or something.

00:16:28 Oli Spink
Yeah. We could talk for hours on it now, I’m afraid.

00:16:32 Pete Aston
But as you know, I would love to.

00:16:35 Oli Spink
I won’t subject you to that.

So once we have the network model and the projections, we create a network model that represents a year, what we believe to be a year in the future under that particular scenario and you run some load flow studies.

Within National Grid over the last few years, we’ve developed some in house power system analysis software that uses some off the shelf software, but some additional programs that we bring in in the back in the background. It takes really quite a brute force approach to analysis, so it takes every possible contingency – I mean, it simulates every possible fault that could happen across that EHV network, and also every combination of arranged outages that we might be having to do, to maintain particular assets, that we need to design a network that is compliant and capable of operating under those conditions.
In addition to that, every arranged average followed by every fault, scenario, so when you layer on top all of those different contingencies, they’re called…

00:17:40 Pete Aston
And you’re doing this for every half hour of the year. Is that right? Or do you come up with approximations of different points through the year? Or are you literally using a whole half hour average over a year?

00:17:52 Oli Spink
That’s a good point. We look at a couple of key representative days, we call them across the year, which the typical peak demand in winter, but also summer, which is generally when you’d look to take out outages to maintain assets in addition to a representative day that looks at kind of a minimum demand coincident with maximum generation output. So, there’s a few different, I suppose cardinal points. It’s not a full annual 17 and a half thousand half hours. It’s looking at a key 240 or so in ticket.

00:18:24 Pete Aston
So, you cut it down from that literally every half an hour in the year to some representative days, but it still sounds like you end up with an awful lot of iterations and runs there.

So, can you give us some numbers as to how many load flows and contingencies that actually run through this process?

00:18:40 Oli Spink
So, yeah, when you’re undertaking it, you have to be right, it’s a trade-off between going into the level of detail of studying every possible contingency that might materialize much more of a, of a pertinent question.

When you have networks that are quite complex and running interconnected and meshed sorts of, configurations, to covering every single half hour. So, at National Grid, we’ve taken the approach of covering what we believe to be kind of a really key cardinal points that represent the worst-case network utilization within given seasons, but also trying to get to that level of detail or the different contingency.

For this most recent network development plan, it covered over 14,000 studies that were run; that was a study that we put on for a particular bit of network representing a particular year or scenario in the future, but I also covered 20 billion load flows.

00:19:39 Pete Aston
Oli, that’s brilliant that those sorts of numbers just demonstrate how that automation and programming are essential to come up with this sort of information. And I think that gives a sense as to how the DSO teams have sort of taken traditional network modelling, and just really ramped up, in sort of complexity and scale. Yeah, that’s, that’s fantastic.

I think we’re still getting a good idea. As to what goes on in the background to prepare this, and then there’s obviously a lot of work that goes into preparing these reports as well. So once you’ve got a circuit or transformer that’s flagging as overloaded in certain scenarios, what happens then – how would you go about suggesting what you might do next with that overload or projected overload in the future?

00:20:35 Oli Spink
When we’re undertaking the analysis planning, we have to look at different options to solve that problem. One of those could be an overloaded circuit, putting in a new circuit or uprating that existing circuit, what we traditionally call conventional reinforcement – bigger assets, more assets.

Alternatively, we can we use the flexibility of our customers and during those particular times of day and seasons that we might see the problem, we pay customers through tariffs and incentives to use energy in a different way. Either be that generation turn up or demand turned down, something like that would help shape that load curve and reduce it underneath the rating of the asset where we’re flagging as constrained.

There are also other things that we can do internally that could involve operational mitigations. For an overloading substation, you can look if it’s possible to transfer the load onto a neighbouring substation, that’s not as highly utilized. There is a variety of solutions that we can recommend and then direct the rest of the business to undertake.

Generally, when we’re looking at these sorts of schemes, we will, where possible, look to utilize flexibility services if it’s technically and economically viable to do so. We try to look at all those flexibility services and publish those as part of our six monthly flexibility procurement activities.

00:21:59 Pete Aston
So, you do the network development plan and that drives what flexibility you want for the next six months?

00:22:05 Oli Spink
Yes, exactly.

00:22:07 Pete Aston
Okay, and then if you go out to the market and you get enough flexibility, you obviously can then use that. If you don’t get enough flexibility, for a certain constraint, does that automatically lead you to some other sort of traditional build options? Is that the way it would work?

00:22:24 Oli Spink
It does, yes. By having the proactive approach and looking as far ahead into the future as possible, we can – if we know how long it takes to solve the problem using conventional reinforcement means, we can try and make that decision as early as possible, and if have enough flexibility, then we can defer that reinforcement needing to start until a couple of years in the future maybe. But if not, then what we need to direct the delivery parts of our business and the DNO, to commence reinforcement works and that will involve a detailed network design, looking at specific routes of circuits, or ordering particular items of plans and then getting it put into our general reinforcement program.

So, the NDP as a process is very much driving the decisions that we’re making when it comes to turn the Ofgem like these is load related expenditure but interpret that as spending money to increase the capacity of our network.

00:23:18 Pete Aston
I guess some people from the outside listening in who do not work for a DNO might just see the network development plan as sort of a box ticking exercise to go, you know, Ofgem have said prepare a report, so we’ve prepared a report, but it sounds very much in NGED like you’re actually using this as a sort of central part of your business planning activity. Is that how you view it from the inside?

00:23:42 Oli Spink
It is, yeah. It’s no use being a plan on the shelf. We’re very much of the opinion that it’s the process that drives all of our reinforcement activities. We can try and use it to be a bit more proactive and get ahead of the game when it comes to making quite low regret investment decisions, that are the right sensible way to develop a particular network. In terms of the reports themselves, they’re the same document for our internal staff as they are for our external staff within the DSO.

One of our key principles is on transparency. We believe it’s a really good way of demonstrating to our customers how we’re planning on developing the network, but that only works if you actually take action on what you’ve put in the plan.

00:24:25 Pete Aston
Does the network development plan then feed into the longer-term business planning activity, because obviously you’ve got ED3 coming up now, sort of on the horizon. Will the outputs from the NDP end up feeding into that sort of wider business planning activity as well?

00:24:44 Oli Spink
Yeah, it does. So, within DNOs, as you very well know, in the past you’d look to redo the ED2 at least on a five yearly basis. We’d love to do this sort of analysis and identify what work we will need to deliver over the next five years, which will become the business plan and when your settlement is agreed that would be what’s in the delivery plan. With the level of uncertainty in the future, growth of low carbon technologies, how that’s going to impact our network, we don’t believe it’s really something that you can do every five years because there’s so much change in the kind of political landscape.

So, it’s very much just a continual activity that we’re doing now. Every five years it feeds into the business plan, but also on a two-yearly basis within RIIO-ED2, which is quite a change, we have what are called load related reopeners. So these are opportunities for NGED to go back to Ofgem and ask for potentially additional funding for general reinforcement, for primary reinforcement, where if the load is higher than what we originally put in our plan and we’re delivering against expectations, so the NDP we see is very much as the continual activity that Ofgem and stakeholders can you use to see that transparency and should feed into all of our reopeners and subsequent price controls.

00:26:08 Pete Aston
Yeah, that makes an awful lot of sense. For your stakeholders, then Oli, so you know, developers of one kind or other, who are looking for new connections, or flexibility providers; how were you hoping that your stakeholder is going to end up using the network development plan?

00:26:29 Oli Spink
I think if we take each of those in turn, I’ll add a third one in – local authorities and the local government stakeholders.
So, the flexibility provider is an indication as to where we would be looking to procure services in the future. If you have flexible asset in that location, it would be on the radar, as to where there might be central revenue stream I suppose for those in the future, with customers looking for new connections, I suppose.

What we’re looking for this MVP to do, and the subsequent activities that we’re doing is to a certain extent, can decouple the reinforcement that may be associated with those new connections if they were to apply and try and bring it forward a bit earlier.

We know that low growth is happening, and we know what the right solution is. What it can do is accelerate that reinforcement activity, and what it should do in the very long term is help with customer connections and timescales reducing a little bit, because we’re not waiting for that customer to come along when we’re quite highly utilized to trigger that reinforcement.

We know it’s coming, so we’ve already triggered it and it’s already in delivery or even delivered by the time that that load must happen. It’s trying to, I suppose, not fully decoupled, because you can’t perfectly forecast everything that’s going to happen everywhere, but it’s trying to kind of bring forward some of those reinforcements.

00:27:49 Pete Aston
If only you could perfectly forecast everything, Oli.

00:27:52 Oli Spink
I know, yeah.

Then finally, sorry, the local authority stakeholder. We have a lot of engagement with our local authorities and regional governments that are looking to understand what the capacity is on the network and how we can play a role in the local or regional decarbonization targets that have been set. So, we rely on those sorts of stakeholders to help give us quite a lot of information that feed into our distribution feature energy scenarios, things like, where there’s going to be new domestic dwellings or industrial commercial developments from local development funds, things like that, and it’s a really useful thing to play back to them and here’s, here’s what we’re planning to do in your region as a result of what you told us. So, yeah, local authorities along with customers potentially looking for new connections and flexibility providers hopefully find this a useful, source of information.

00:28:42 Pete Aston
Yeah, and certainly, I use the network development plans in my own work, and I think they’re very useful just to get that sense of where you as a DNO are looking to take it. I find it incredibly valuable to look through and I would certainly encourage everyone to go and look, I guess you can just find this on the NGED website, can’t you, Oli?

We can probably put a link in the show notes somewhere, (National Grid – Network Development Plan) we will attempt to do that. I think I just had one last question really Oli, was if you’ve got any thoughts around what the future of provision of this kind of data is, 10 years ago, the NDP and these bigger strategic documents weren’t there – they weren’t a thing, and now they are. So, what sort of changes might we expect over the next five to 10 years as DSOs get even bigger and more important.

00:29:37 Oli Spink
A really good question; I think in the short-term, what we’re looking to do is make this data a lot more accessible for customers, I appreciate coming at this from a distribution network planning engineer background, it’s quite technical and it’s very detailed, talking about specific substations, but I think there’s a way, of how we present this to external stakeholders, that’s a bit more accessible – a bit more, digestible.

So, I think that’s a key focus of what we’re looking to do over the next few years in terms of this publication. I think longer-term, I hope that it can be used is as a key link back to where we have developed the network, and you can look back to say a new substation being built in a place and you can trace that back to the NDP back in 2024 who said that we will need a new substation in this area and this is going to help to solve all these constraints. It exists as a result of the analysis that we’ve done, and the very accurate forecasting that is required.

So, I think long-term actually seeing the development of the network at pace to deal with the levels of growth we’re expecting will be hopefully quite a real thing that people can see and trace back through the transparency of what we’re showing as to, how it has been triggered.

00:30:55 Pete Aston
Yeah, that’s brilliant. I think the future of data provision and the future of network development in general looks really good. I think it’s very easy to read the press and think that everything’s going bad.

You read and you say there’s this massive queue and customers are held off from connecting for a very long time, and sure, you know lots of that is the case and there’s lots of things going on to address that. But, there’s also a lot of really good things that have already happened – the network development plan is one of those things. I’d really encourage listeners to go and read it, go and look at it, be informed by it in your own planning.

Oli, it’s been absolutely fantastic to have you. Thank you so much for coming along, I hope you’ve enjoyed being on the podcast.

00:31:41 Oli Spink
Yeah. Thank you very much for having me.

00:30:55 Pete Aston
If listeners have any questions around NDPs, what’s the best way of them getting in touch with NGED, is there contact details on the website, or is there a different way of getting in touch with you, or someone else in the team?

00:31:41 Oli Spink
There are contact details on our website of how to engage with the DSO team more widely, but feel free to contact myself as well.

Within each local license area, we have strategic engagement officers that are key points of contact, the local stakeholders talk about their decarbonization activities and how we can reflect that in our plans. But specific license areas, we have dedicated points of contact, but also general DSO inboxes and points of contact you’d like to get in touch.

00:32:32 Pete Aston
Brilliant. Thank you everyone for listening to this podcast, it’s been really good. And we hope you join us again for our next time, but until then. Thank you very much and goodbye.

00:32:45 Hugh Taylor
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